In a previous post, I discussed the current and expected nurses’ shortage. What makes the future of our healthcare and hospital system even scarier is an expected physicians’ shortage over the next decades. Estimates suggest that we will need but not have around 55,000-200,000 doctors by the year 2020.

The reasons behind the expected shortage can be divided into two categories: reasons that relate to the increased demand for medical services (demand-related reasons), and those that relate to the decreased supply of doctors’ services (supply-related reasons). 

Aging Population

The first and most obvious reason is the aging of the population as baby boomers turn 65. It is expected that by 2030, the entire population of the United States will be as old as the population of Florida is today! As an example of increased demand, the surgery rate for people over 65 is almost three times the rate for those under 65.

Chronic Diseases

Another demand-related reason is the increase in chronic diseases such as cancer, diabetes, and heart disease. Not only is our population getting older, it is also getting bigger (i.e., fatter!), which creates a variety of obesity-related diseases that were not as prevalent some fifty years ago. Innovations in technology and new discoveries in medicine have also created the need for a new breed of super-specialized doctors.

Doctors' Geographic Distribution

It is also important to note that doctors’ distribution across geographic areas is not equal. Several rural communities have severe doctor shortages (especially specialists) whereas some metropolitan areas are over-saturated with doctors. While 20% of the American population lives in non-metropolitan areas, only 11% of doctors live in these areas. The majority of doctors chose where to practice not based on need and demand, but rather based on personal preferences.

In my next post, I go into the decreased supply of doctors' services.