In my previous post, I discussed how demand for doctors’ services has drastically increased over the decade and on. In this post, I will explain how supply has remained stagnant or has decreased.

Less Graduates 

The number of U.S.-trained graduates per population continues to decrease as the number of medical schools and number of residency sites has remained the same since 1980. On the other hand, the number of foreign-trained medical graduates has also decreased because of Visa restrictions, especially since 9/11.

Less Hours 

Another interesting change do not relate to the number of doctors, but rather to the number of hours worked per doctor. While the older generation of doctors equated work with life, the new generation wants more work-life balance. As a result, it takes two younger doctors to replace an older one in terms of workload! Moreover, the number of females entering medical schools keeps increasing every year (almost 50% of all first-year medical students were females in the last few years). Numbers show that female doctors work on average 18% less hours than their male counterparts, and prefer to work part-time.

Early Retirement 

Another major reason for the reduced supply of doctors is the increasing number of doctors who are leaving the profession before retirement age due to burnout and dissatisfaction. This is due to decreased doctors' autonomy, reduced reimbursement rates, and increased costs of running doctors’ practices.

The terrifying thing about these predictions is that they don’t take into consideration the likely implications of healthcare reform bills currently debated in Congress. As an expected 45 million additional people get insurance coverage, it is likely that the doctors’ shortage will also skyrocket. The days when you called your doctor’s office and got an appointment within one or two weeks may soon be over. Instead, expect a much longer wait or an appointment with the nurse practitioner or physician assistant.