Can We Handle An H1N1 (Swine Flu) Virus Outbreak This Fall?

As the country gets ready for the second wave of H1N1 virus (previously called Swine Flu) this fall, we now know that the virus is not as severe as we thought when it first appeared last spring. Most people that contacted the virus have recovered without needing medical treatment. However, hospitalizations and deaths from infection with H1N1 have also occurred.

While most people are optimistic that good hygiene practices and isolation of sick patients would limit the spread of the virus, the possibility of a full-blown outbreak in the US this fall is very real. An outbreak would be equivalent to 30% of people contracting H1N1, which means that 90 million will get ill, 1.8 million would need to be hospitalized and 30,000 could die from the virus.

In the event of an outbreak, doctors’ office and emergency rooms will be the first healthcare settings to see an influx of patients. However, as the pandemic unfolds, more patients would need to be admitted to the hospital. So the availability of hospital beds as compared to the number of people would determine whether patients would have access to the hospital care that they need.

A very important question to answer is whether the country and its hospital infrastructure can handle such an outbreak. A new report suggests that the answer depends on which state you are in.

If you live in North Dakota, Mississippi, or South Dakota, then you don’t need to worry. At the peak of a pandemic, these states would have the highest amount of available beds (bed capacity would be at only 32%, 35% and 37% respectively). Other states that would be at or lower than 75% bed capacity (meaning that they will have at least 25% of their hospital beds available even during the worst time of the disease) include Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, D.C., Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Twelve states would be stretched at more than 75% of their bed capacity: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin.

The worst states to be in during the peak of the epidemic (in terms of no hospital beds available) are Delaware and Connecticut, as these would have the highest overload rates (203% and 148% respectively). Other states that also would be at or higher than 100% bed capacity include Arizona, California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.

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